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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Reveals Steady U.S. Hiring Plans for Fourth Quarter 2007
MILWAUKEE (Sept. 11, 2007) -U.S. employers plan to maintain a stable, yet cautious approach toward hiring in the final quarter of 2007, according to the seasonally adjusted results of the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey conducted quarterly by Manpower Inc.
“It is not unexpected that U.S. employers have conservative hiring plans for the fourth quarter,” said Jeffrey A. Joerres, Chairman & CEO of Manpower Inc. “The market forces that impact hiring do not conclusively point toward growth or decline, and that is a likely contributor to the prudent hiring trends apparent in the survey throughout 2007.”
Of the 14,000 U.S. employers surveyed, 27% expect to increase their workforces during the fourth quarter of 2007, while 9% expect to trim their payrolls. Fifty-eight percent expect no change in the hiring pace, and 6% are undecided about their hiring plans.
The seasonally adjusted survey results show that in the majority of industry sectors the hiring pace is expected to remain steady during the final months of 2007. Employers in Construction, Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Education and Services foresee a hiring climate that is relatively unchanged from the third quarter forecast. Mining and Transportation/Public Utilities employers anticipate a slight downturn in hiring pace, while employers in the Public Administration sector foresee improved job prospects compared to the previous quarter.
"Companies that deal with producing goods are struggling, but the service sector is doing very well," said Jonas Prising, President of Manpower North America. “We can clearly see this trend in the survey results, with Services employers reporting the strongest hiring intentions for the fourth quarter, and those in the Manufacturing and Construction sectors coming in with weaker employment projections.”
At the regional level, job prospects are most vigorous in the West and weakest in the Northeast for the second consecutive quarter. A notable milestone, Services employers in the West are more optimistic about hiring than they have been in more than 25 years of survey data. Quarter-over-quarter comparisons show that employers in the Northeast, Midwest, South and West expect hiring to remain stable for the next three months.
In addition to the United States, the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted in 26 other countries and territories. The quarterly report from Manpower Inc. is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, gathering data from nearly 52,000 employers across the globe each quarter.
The strongest fourth quarter hiring prospects reported globally were in Peru, India, Singapore, Costa Rica, Argentina, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and Hong Kong. Italian employers again reported the least robust hiring plans globally. Employers in 11 countries and territories are reporting improved hiring plans compared to the third quarter, while job prospects are expected to improve in 14 countries on a year-over-year basis.
In the Americas, employers in Peru, Costa Rica and Argentina are most optimistic about hiring in next three months. Mexican employers continue to report strong hiring expectations, while the pace of hiring in Canada is expected to remain stable from the third quarter to the fourth, but be slightly slower compared to the fourth quarter of 2006.
Of the countries surveyed in Europe, employers in Norway, Sweden, Spain and Germany are most optimistic about adding to their workforces. Hiring expectations in all of these countries increased moderately compared to the fourth quarter of 2006. In contrast, hiring optimism among Irish employers fell considerably from one year ago.
Employers across the eight countries and territories surveyed in the Asia Pacific region are reporting varying degrees of positive hiring expectations. Employer optimism increased from the third quarter and one year ago in four of eight countries and territories surveyed. The strongest hiring plans were reported in India, Singapore, Japan and Australia, while employers in Taiwan and China reported the weakest hiring outlooks in the region.
The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on December 11, 2007, to report hiring expectations for the first quarter of 2008.
Sector Comparisons
When seasonal variations are removed from the data, Services employers are the most optimistic about their hiring plans for Quarter 4 2007. A healthy hiring pace is expected in the Mining and Public Administration sectors. A more temperate jobs climate is expected in the Construction, Education, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, and Wholesale/Retail Trade sectors. Transportation/Public utilities employers are most conservative about their hiring intentions for the final months of 2007.
For the final months of 2007, Construction employers report little change in hiring plans compared to Quarter 3, however compared with last year, staffing plans are moderately weaker. Seasonally adjusted numbers indicate that this is the lowest measure of employer confidence in four years.
During the October – December period, hiring plans are most buoyant in the Midwest and most conservative in the West.When seasonal variations are removed from the survey data, Education employers slipped below plans for the previous quarter but foresee a slight pick-up in the hiring pace compared with the same time last year.
Employers in the West are most likely to staff up, while the hiring landscape in the Northeast is predicted to be more barren than the other regions.
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
The hiring pace in Finance/Insurance/Real Estate is expected to be identical to Quarter 3 levels, according to the seasonally adjusted survey data. Year-over-year, employers report a slight decline in hiring expectations.
Employers in the South report the strongest job prospects, while those in the Northeast have the weakest hiring plans.
When seasonal variations are removed from the data, job seekers in the Durable Goods Manufacturing sector are likely to find the hiring scene unchanged from Quarter 3. Compared with one year ago, hiring plans are slightly less optimistic for the close of 2007.
The strongest job prospects are reported in the West, while employers in the Midwest show the least optimism.
Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods
For Quarter 4 2007, Non-Durable Goods manufacturers are relatively unmoved in their hiring expectations, according to seasonally adjusted survey data. Hiring plans are in line with the forecasts for Quarter 3 and one year ago.
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturers in the West report the most optimistic employment forecast. Conversely, employers in the Northeast are the most reserved in their staffing plans.
Job market optimism has slipped among Mining employers for the third consecutive quarter. The hiring pace is likely to take a slight dip compared to Quarter 3, however staffing expectations are similar to those reported a year ago at this time.
Mining employers in the South have the most confidence about hiring for the final months of 2007. The hiring picture in the Northeast is significantly different from the other regions, with job cuts more likely than job gains.
When seasonal variations are removed from the data, a healthy hiring pace is expected in the Public Administration sector for Quarter 4 2007. Employers are more optimistic about employment gains versus Quarter 3 and one year ago.
Employers in the West are most confident about staffing, while those in the Northeast anticipate the slowest hiring.
According to seasonally adjusted survey results, hiring plans in the Services sector are expected to remain relatively unchanged from the July – September survey period and one year ago. Among the 10 industry sectors surveyed, Services employers are most confident about their Quarter 4 hiring plans.
Employers in the West report the most upbeat hiring plans, whereas hiring managers in the Northeast are least optimistic in their staffing expectations.
Transportation & Public Utilities
Transportation/Public Utilities employers issued weaker hiring plans for Quarter 4 versus Quarter 3 2007 and the same period last year. When seasonal variations are removed from the data, hiring expectations are the weakest of the 10 industry sectors surveyed.
Regional hiring patterns show that employers in the West expect to offer the most promising job prospects, while those in the Northeast are the most reserved about hiring.
Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions remain stable among Wholesale/Retail Trade employers, according to the seasonally adjusted data. However, employers are more cautious about their staffing plans compared with one year ago at this time.
Job seekers are likely to find the most promising job prospects in the West and the weakest plans among employers in the Northeast.
Note to Editors
All comments are based on seasonally adjusted data where available. Graphical illustrations and full survey results for each U.S. region and industry sector can be found in the Manpower Employment Outlook survey report. The report can be accessed in the Manpower Press Room at www.manpower.com/meos. Here you will also find results of the surveys conducted in the other 26 countries. All graphs from the full report are available to download for use in publication or broadcast from the Manpower Online Visual Library, also located in the Press Room on http://www.manpower.com/library.
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey data is available for more than 460 U.S. markets across the country. Local findings can be obtained by contacting Bethany Perkins at 414.906.6253 or meos@na.manpower.com.About the Survey
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. It is the most extensive forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. The Survey has been running for more than 40 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is based on interviews with nearly 52,000 public and private employers worldwide and is considered a highly respected economic indicator.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is currently available for 27 countries and territories: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, Costa Rica, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Singapore, Spain, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the United Kingdom and the United States. The program began in the United States and Canada in 1962, and the United Kingdom was added in 1966. Mexico and Ireland launched the survey in 2002, and 13 additional countries were added to the program in 2003. New Zealand joined the program in 2004, China, India, Switzerland and Taiwan were added in 2005, and Argentina, Peru, Costa Rica and South Africa joined in 2006.
For more information, visit the Manpower Inc. Web site at www.manpower.com and enter the Research Center.
About Manpower Inc.
Manpower Inc. is a world leader in the employment services industry; creating and delivering services that enable its clients to win in the changing world of work. The $18 billion company offers employers a range of services for the entire employment and business cycle including permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment and selection; training; outplacement; outsourcing and consulting. Manpower’s worldwide network of 4,400 offices in 73 countries and territories enables the company to meet the needs of its 400,000 clients per year, including small and medium size enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the world’s largest multinational corporations. The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction across their total workforce, enabling clients to concentrate on their core business activities. Manpower Inc. operated under five brands: Manpower, Manpower Professional, Elan, Jefferson Wells and Right Management. More information on Manpower Inc. is available at www.us.manpower.com.
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